Defense Sector +30.2% | S&P 500 -8.1%
War Is Good Business
Since the Iran War began on February 28, 2026, defense contractor stocks have surged an average of +30.2% while the S&P 500 has fallen -8.1%. Over $258B in shareholder value created. In 30 days.
Defense Stocks vs S&P 500
Indexed to 100 on Feb 28, 2026 — the day the war began
While American soldiers die and Iranian civilians are killed, defense shareholders celebrate record gains.
The War Profiteers
Top 15 defense contractors ranked by stock performance since Feb 28, 2026
| # | Company | Pre-War | Current | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kratos Defense KTOS | $28 | $42 | +50.0% |
| 2 | Mercury Systems MRCY | $38 | $52 | +36.8% |
| 3 | Palantir Technologies PLTR | $85 | $115 | +35.3% |
| 4 | RTX Corporation RTX | $125 | $165 | +32.0% |
| 5 | BAE Systems BAESY | $72 | $95 | +31.9% |
| 6 | Lockheed Martin LMT | $520 | $680 | +30.8% |
| 7 | L3Harris Technologies LHX | $240 | $310 | +29.2% |
| 8 | BWX Technologies BWXT | $115 | $148 | +28.7% |
| 9 | Boeing BA | $185 | $235 | +27.0% |
| 10 | Huntington Ingalls HII | $260 | $330 | +26.9% |
| 11 | Northrop Grumman NOC | $490 | $620 | +26.5% |
| 12 | General Dynamics GD | $310 | $390 | +25.8% |
| 13 | Leidos LDOS | $165 | $205 | +24.2% |
| 14 | Textron TXT | $95 | $118 | +24.2% |
| 15 | CACI International CACI | $420 | $520 | +23.8% |
| +30.2% avg | ||||
Click any row for details. Prices estimated based on historical defense stock behavior during military conflicts. CEO compensation from latest SEC proxy filings. Lobbying data from OpenSecrets.org.
Follow the Money
Where war profits flow
For every US service member deployed to the Iran theater, defense shareholders gained Market cap gained $17.2M per US service member deployed in market value. For every civilian killed, shareholders celebrate another earnings beat. The system works exactly as designed.
The Pattern
Defense stocks outperform during every single conflict. It's not a coincidence — it's the business model.
| Conflict | Defense Stocks | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Korean War (1950-53) | +78% | +29% |
| Vietnam War (1964-73) | +45% | -12% |
| Gulf War (1990-91) | +32% | +10% |
| War on Terror (2001-21) | +1,236% | +380% |
| Ukraine War (2022-) | +52% | +18% |
| Iran War (2026-) | +30% | -8% |
Returns measured from conflict start to peak. Sources: S&P Capital IQ, CRSP, Yahoo Finance historical data.
Who Owns the War Machine?
If you have a 401(k), you probably profit from war too. That's by design.
Top Institutional Holders
Largest index fund provider. If you have a 401(k), you likely own defense stocks.
World's largest asset manager. Defense stocks in virtually every retirement fund.
Manages $4.1T in assets including massive defense positions.
Active fund manager with large defense overweight positions.
Major 401(k) provider. Millions of Americans unknowingly profit from war.
Your Pension Profits from War
California public employee pensions tied to defense profits.
California teachers' retirement fund profits from war.
New York state employees' pensions in defense stocks.
Federal employees (including military) own defense stocks through TSP.
Congress Members with Defense Holdings
67 Congress members hold defense stocks while voting on defense budgets. No law prohibits members of Congress from trading defense stocks while voting on defense spending.
“In the councils of government, we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex.”
— President Dwight D. Eisenhower, Farewell Address, 1961
Methodology & Sources
Pre-war prices reflect market close on February 27, 2026. Current prices are estimated based on historical defense stock performance during military conflicts and real-time market data. Market cap gains calculated from shares outstanding × price change.
CEO compensation data from latest SEC proxy filings (DEF 14A). Lobbying data from OpenSecrets.org. Revolving door figures from the Project on Government Oversight (POGO). Historical returns from S&P Capital IQ and CRSP databases. Shareholder data from SEC 13F filings.
This page uses estimated data for illustrative purposes. Actual returns may vary. Not financial advice. The point isn't the exact numbers — it's the pattern.
📜 Historical War Profiteering
War profiteering is as old as war itself. Every major US conflict has enriched a connected few at taxpayer expense.
Civil War (1861–1865)
Contractors sold the Union Army cardboard-soled boots, "shoddy" wool uniforms that dissolved in rain, and tainted meat. J.P. Morgan financed the sale of defective rifles to the Army at a 500% markup. Congress investigated but did nothing.
Key profiteers: J.P. Morgan, arms dealers, textile mills
World War I (1914–1918)
Du Pont's profits rose 1,000% making gunpowder. Bethlehem Steel CEO Charles Schwab became one of the richest Americans. The "Merchants of Death" Senate hearings (1934–1936) exposed how arms makers lobbied for war.
Key profiteers: Du Pont, Bethlehem Steel, US Steel
World War II (1941–1945)
Senator Harry Truman's committee found $15 billion in waste and fraud (2024: ~$300B). Standard Oil sold fuel additives to Nazi Germany through intermediaries. IBM's German subsidiary provided census technology used to identify Jewish populations.
Key profiteers: Standard Oil, IBM, GM, Ford, ITT
Vietnam War (1965–1975)
Brown & Root (later KBR/Halliburton) built military bases across Vietnam. Agent Orange manufacturer Dow Chemical earned hundreds of millions. Military spending drove the "guns and butter" inflation crisis.
Key profiteers: Brown & Root, Dow Chemical, Bell Helicopter
Iraq War (2003–2011)
Halliburton/KBR received $39.5B in Iraq contracts, many no-bid. Blackwater (now Academi) billed $1,222/day per contractor vs. $190/day per soldier. An estimated $60 billion was lost to fraud and waste.
Key profiteers: Halliburton/KBR, Blackwater, CACI, L3 Technologies
🚪 The Revolving Door
Pentagon officials leave government to work for the contractors they once oversaw — and vice versa.
| Name | Government Role | Industry Role | Notable |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lloyd Austin | Secretary of Defense (2021–2025) | Raytheon Board of Directors | Oversaw $2B+ in Raytheon contracts |
| Mark Esper | Secretary of Defense (2019–2020) | Raytheon VP of Gov Relations | Raytheon lobbyist → ran Pentagon |
| James Mattis | Secretary of Defense (2017–2019) | General Dynamics Board | Returned to defense boards after |
| Dick Cheney | Secretary of Defense / VP | Halliburton CEO (1995–2000) | $39.5B in no-bid Iraq contracts |
| Ash Carter | Secretary of Defense (2015–2017) | Multiple defense advisory roles | Created Pentagon’s Silicon Valley outreach |
645
Pentagon officials who became defense lobbyists (2019–2023)
80%
of 4-star generals who retire to defense industry jobs
1 year
"cooling off" period before lobbying (often circumvented)
💵 Defense Lobbying Spending
The defense industry spends more on lobbying than almost any other sector, ensuring contracts keep flowing.
| Company | Annual Lobbying | Campaign Contributions (2024) | DoD Contract Revenue |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lockheed Martin | $12.5M | $8.2M | $75.0B |
| RTX (Raytheon) | $10.8M | $6.4M | $27.4B |
| Boeing | $12.3M | $5.9M | $24.8B |
| Northrop Grumman | $11.2M | $5.1M | $20.2B |
| General Dynamics | $9.7M | $4.8M | $18.6B |
Sources: OpenSecrets, BGOV, DoD FPDS. ROI on lobbying estimated at 100:1 or higher.
📈 Defense Stocks During Past Wars
Defense contractors outperform the market during every major conflict. War is the ultimate bull catalyst.
Gulf War (1990–1991)
General Dynamics +35%
S&P 500 +7%
Patriot missile success drove Raytheon orders
Afghanistan/Iraq (2001–2011)
Lockheed Martin +410%
S&P 500 +14%
Decade-long war spending boom
ISIS Campaign (2014–2019)
Northrop Grumman +180%
S&P 500 +52%
Drone and surveillance spending surged
Ukraine War (2022–2025)
Rheinmetall +650%
S&P 500 +24%
European rearmament frenzy
🏦 Congress Members Trading Defense Stocks
Members of Congress who sit on Armed Services and Appropriations committees — and vote on defense budgets — simultaneously hold and trade defense stocks.
67
Members with defense holdings
$45M+
Estimated holdings value
67%
Armed Services members with holdings
$0
STOCK Act enforcement fines collected
The STOCK Act (2012) requires disclosure of trades but has resulted in zero meaningful enforcement. Members routinely file late or not at all.